It’s race week once again. What began in Australia in March has brought us twelve rounds of action so far, marking the halfway point of the 2025 season—a perfect time, then, to take stock of what’s happened and what may yet happen. Back in January, I wrote a piece discussing the core themes to watch out for as the season developed. Let’s take a look at where things stand as the series descends on the legendary Spa-Francorchamps.
Is The Championship Already Over?
Well, no. But also, kind of. It depends on who you ask and what colour their racing suit happens to be. We all have our favourites, and while I make every effort to take an objective view of both on-track incidents and off-track personalities, I’ve never hidden the fact that I cheer for a confident Dutchman on a Sunday afternoon.
After pre-season testing, I privately fumed that Max Verstappen probably wouldn’t win a race this year. He quickly disproved that, but the struggle has been real. A dramatic swing of pace from Red Bull is what’s needed for him to make it five-in-a-row – one they simply cannot produce. Nothing in the previous 18 months has worked. Having seen a 2024 quote from Pierre Wache implying they’re out of ideas, it feels a little like Max and his engineer, G-P Lambiase, are carrying a team that otherwise isn’t good enough to win. Who’d have thought that chasing Adrian Newey away from your team through a mix of hubris and scandal would be a bad idea?
I remain hopeful, but I’m also a realist. And realistically, we’re looking at a fight between the McLarens. I’m going to go out on a limb here: Lando Norris will be the 2025 World Champion.
I don’t live under a rock. I see the memes and online mockery about Lando’s mistakes, or his unenviable tendency to turn pole position into second place by the first corner. But I also see him routinely come back stronger from these setbacks. The best drivers dig deeper and find more. Damon Hill rebuilt from a terrible 1995 to see off the threat of Jacques Villeneuve in 1996. Mika Häkkinen raised his game to defeat Michael Schumacher in 1998. We saw Felipe Massa find another level in 2008. Verstappen’s current status as the F1 benchmark is the result of endless, unrelenting improvement. This ability to find the next gear, the eternal pursuit of growth, is what leads people to greatness.
To take nothing away from Oscar Piastri, who is doing a remarkable job and deserves every ounce of credit, I just wouldn’t be foolish enough to count Lando Norris out of this. There are 8 points between them as we roll into the Ardennes this weekend. It is all to play for – as long as you’re wearing papaya.
The Never-Ending Saga
When I previously wrote that we should prepare ourselves for more replacement speculation if Liam Lawson didn’t perform alongside Max Verstappen in the other Red Bull, I wasn’t prepared for exactly how quickly that cycle would unfold. It’s the same story all over again, and I can’t be the only one growing in frustration that the team seems obsessed with looking in the wrong places for its performance deficit.
A common retort to the struggles of the ‘other’ Red Bull seat is something along the lines of, “But the car is designed around Max.” Even Alex Albon, one of the many victims that seat has claimed over the years, once stated in an interview that this suggestion isn’t actually valid. But more telling is the fact that Verstappen himself is clearly unhappy with how things have been for well over a year now, with no tangible improvement. If the car is designed specifically for him, they haven’t done an excellent job of it.
Yuki Tsunoda was doing great with Racing Bulls in the first two races. Qualifying 5th in Australia for the season opener and 8th for the next round in China, the fact that his results declined dramatically as soon as he moved into the Red Bull would suggest the problem isn’t him. In the ironic words of the recently departed Christian Horner, “Change your f***ing car.”
Ferrari: A Closer Battle Than Many Expected
Whenever I see comments like “Lewis Hamilton is past it”, I always chuckle quietly to myself. It’s the only reasonable response to a statement that is demonstrable nonsense.
In my season preview in January, I predicted that counting Hamilton out in the battle for supremacy at Ferrari would be unwise. This has nothing to do with me being British – I am, as admitted at the start of this article, a Verstappen fan. If I like an athlete and something about them connects with me on a personal level, I will support them, whether or not they fell out of their mother on the same land mass as me, really has no significance whatsoever.
It’s just the facts, as a fictional detective once said. Leclerc is having an underwhelming season, and Hamilton finds himself a mere 16 points shy at the halfway stage, having scored the team’s only win of the season at the China Sprint Race. Lewis is clearly still performing at a high level, but whispers are beginning to suggest that Leclerc may be worn out by Ferrari’s perennial underachievement. One of the sweet-natured in the F1 paddock, he is also human. Touted by many – including myself – as best equipped to scale the heights needed to fight with Verstappen, everyone’s patience has a limit.
To some extent, I think both Leclerc and Hamilton will be relieved to park the SF-25 in the garage for the final time at Abu Dhabi.
A Midfield Fight for the Ages
Coming off a season where seven different drivers saw the top step of the podium, this year was expected to be the tightest in decades. But at the front of the field, it has been surprisingly spread out at times. Credit must go to McLaren for engineering a brilliant and versatile car, but there have been races where the order felt a little bit like Noah’s Ark.
The saving grace has been a competitive second half of the grid where Williams, Haas, Alpine, Aston Martin, and Racing Bulls have all enjoyed moments in the sun. Some more so than others, perhaps, but the result is the bottom six teams separated by 40 points. That’s a tiny spread after 12 races, and one that could be completely upended after one extraordinary event along the lines of Brazil last year.
Of course, the question of “Will Aston Martin beat Racing Bulls in the WCC?” is not as exciting as “Which driver will win the WDC?” But we can take some solace from the fact that, even as McLaren disappears over the horizon, there are battles to watch all through the order. Thanks in no small part to some standout performances from this year’s rookies…
The Battle of the Rookies
F1 2025 began with the biggest and most exciting intake of recruits in some years. We all knew the incoming class packed some serious talent, but did anyone see Isack Hadjar routinely showing up in Q3? Or Gabriel Bortoletto battling with Fernando Alonso for 7th at Austria?
Sadly, Jack Doohan didn’t get much of a chance, and I’m probably not alone in thinking he got parked too soon. However, overall, the rookies have performed exceedingly well. My pre-season prediction of a stand-out year for Ollie Bearman wasn’t wholly wrong, but it’s been a mixed year for Bearman, with plenty of ups and downs.
A much more solid argument could be made that Hadjar has impressed the most out of the new crop. He quickly dispelled the fallout from a terrible opening race in Australia and has been consistently good enough that there was even talk of him being promoted into the second Red Bull seat.
Given what I said above about the current form of the senior team, ‘promoted’ is a debatable choice of wording there. Don’t do it, Isack. I really don’t want to be back here in a few months, talking about how it all went wrong for what has been an outstanding rookie campaign.
Image Sourced via F1 Facebook
