1. There Will Be A Tie
2024 featured three of the closest finishes in NASCAR history. Including the closest finish in the history of the NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas Speedway where Kyle Larson beat Chris Buescher in Overtime by 0.001 seconds. Naturally the next level of progression for this record would be a tie.
2. A Rookie (Not Named Connor Zilisch) Will Lead The Xfinity Series in Wins
Late last year I wrote about the 2025 rookie class in the Xfinity Series. A class that includes the aforementioned Zilisch, Carson Kvapil, William Sawalich and Christian Eckes among others. Given the strength of this class (and the arrival of Connor Zilisch), it doesn’t feel to far fetched to think a rookie could win 5 or 6 races.
3. Shane van Gisbergen Will Lead All Trackhouse Drivers In Wins
Over the first four years of existence for Trackhouse, Daniel Suarez has won twice, while Ross Chastain has smashed a watermelon 5 times for the team in Cup. SVG has just 1 win and came agonizingly close to a second at Watkins Glen last Fall, before getting beat by Chris Buescher. Given the abundance of Road Courses on the current NASCAR Schedule and SVG’s continued gathering of experience in the Cup car, SVG could win 2 or 3 races this year and lead the organization in the category.
4. Daniel Suarez Will Win The First Cup Series Race in Mexico
Admittedly, this is not so much a bold prediction as it is a manifestation. The crowd at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City would explode if Suarez managed to pull off this win. Simply put, it would be pure cinema.
5. Kaden Honeycutt Will Become The Second Consecutive Snowball Derby Winner to Win The Craftsman Truck Series Title
In case you haven’t picked up what I have, in 2023 Ty Majeski won the Snowball Derby at Five Flags Speedway and won the Truck Series Championship in 2024. Kaden Honeycutt was outstanding in a part-time effort with Niece Motorsports in the Truck Series and was picked up for a full-time effort for the team in 2025. Honeycutt capped off a great year with a win in the Snowball Derby in December.
6. At Least 3 Former Stewart-Haas Racing Drivers Will Win a Race This Year
The four former SHR Drivers (Josh Berry (Woodbrothers), Chase Briscoe (Joe Gibbs Racing), Noah Gragson (Front Row Motorsports), Ryan Preece (RFK Racing)) all went their separate ways this offseason. Three of them went to teams that are regularly capable of winning races, while the odd one out, Berry, went to a team that did win a race last year with Harrison Burton. The possibility exists that Preece, Gragson and Briscoe could all find themselves in contention at times.
7. Chase Briscoe Will Lead The Cup Series in Wins
Moreover, Briscoe put the field on notice when he won the Southern 500 this past September. He has long been held back by underperforming equipment at SHR. So in moving from SHR to JGR, I expect Briscoe to win multiple races this season and quite possibly win more than any other driver in the series.
8. Carson Hocevar Earns Spire Their First Win in a Full Length Race
Back in 2019, Spire Motorsports won their first ever race at Daytona with Justin Haley. Since then they have been scratching and clawing to build up their organization into a competitive one. Now they have done that and they have a terrific young driver in Carson Hocevar (as well as a returning Justin Haley) to build around. Hocevar is the reigning Cup Series Rookie of the Year and could be the one to get Spire their first full-length race win.
9. Brandon Jones Will Return Pre-JR Motorsports Form and Win at Least Two Races
Brandon Jones tenure at JRM was forgettable at best. He seemed to always have speed but could never properly execute in the race or seemed to always have something go wrong, regardless of whether it was out of his control or not. Jones drove for JGR for 5 years and won 5 races. From 2020 to 2022, Jones had 27 Top-5s and 51 Top-10s.
10. Kyle Larson Will Sweep His Starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Last May, Kyle Larson made his debut in the Indianapolis 500 and will be returning for a second attempt at “The Double” this year. Last January, I predicted that Larson would sweep both the 500 and the 600. Obviously that did not work out, Larson didn’t even make it to Charlotte on time after the Indy 500 was delayed and the Coke 600 was shortened, both due to rain. Larson responded by winning the Brickyard 400 later that Summer. So this year, I am predicting that he will win the Indy 500 and the Brickyard 400 in the same year.
11. Tyler Reddick Wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway With a Last Lap Pass For the Second Time in Six Months
In October, Tyler Reddick capped off one of the best NASCAR races of the 21st Century with a shocking and incredibly gutsy last lap pass on Ryan Blaney in Turn’s 3 & 4. The odds are already stacked against him, Homestead does not have a history of back-to-back winners. Tony Stewart won twice to begin the tracks tenure on the Cup circuit. Then Greg Biffle won three straight from 2004-2006, no one else has managed to accomplish the feat.
12. There Will Be Four or Less Flips Across All Three Series
Last Season, there were four flips in the Cup Series alone. Taylor Gray flipped in the Truck Series at Daytona and Kyle Sieg went airborne at Michigan.
13. Toni Breidinger Will Become the First Woman to Win in NASCAR
After several years in the ARCA Menards Series, Breidinger is making the jump to the Craftsman Truck Series with Tricon Garage. She put up a solid 15th place finish in her debut in the series in 2023. I could see Breidinger pulling off the upset at Daytona in a couple of weeks or at Talladega later this Fall.
14. There Will Be at Least Four First Time Winners in the Cup Series
In conjunction with my prediction about three former SHR drivers winning this year, that could result in two or three first time winners. Throw in a name like the aforementioned Carson Hocevar, or perhaps someone like Todd Gilliland or Zane Smith and that results in 4+ first time winners.
15. Tyler Reddick and Shane van Gisbergen Will Have a Fierce Battle to Win a Race, Creating a Battle Between Monster Energy and Red Bull
At the time of writing, it was just announced this morning that Red Bull will be returning to NASCAR as the Primary Sponsor for SVG five times and will serve as the Primary Sponsor for Connor Zilisch for his Cup debut at Circuit of the Americas. As a result of this announcement, we now have Red Bull and Monster Energy (who sponsors Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick and Riley Herbst) in the sport at the same time and the potential for some fierce battles between drivers sponsored by two of the biggest Energy Drinks in the World.
16. A Race Winner Will Miss the Playoffs
This prediction is very self-explanatory. We came very close to seeing this happen a couple of years ago, so I am predicting that this is the year that it actually happens.
17. Spire Motorsports Will Win at Least Two Races
Earlier, I presented the prediction that Carson Hocevar will get Spire their first win in a full-length race. This prediction builds on that. The signing of 2021 Daytona 500 Winner, Michael McDowell and the re-acquisition of Justin Haley Last Fall put Spire in a very good spot to succeed this coming season.
18. Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell Will Recreate Their Tulsa Shootout Finish at Homestead
If you’re a little out of the loop on this, that’s ok. Long story short, at the Annual Tulsa Shootout, a race for Micro Sprints that takes place in the same building and on the same track on which the Chili Bowl is held every January. The Tulsa Shootout is typically held the week of New Years, about a week and a half before the Chili Bowl.
Larson and Bell were competing in “The Shootout”, as it is more affectionately known, and in the waning laps of the Main Event on Saturday Night, Bell and Larson were poised to spoil the viewers at home and in the Expo Center with a classic finish. And they did just that. Bell managed to hold off a last ditch effort of a slider from Larson and win in a photo finish. (Don’t worry, Larson tied Bell with his 3rd Chili Bowl Nationals Victory two weeks later)
19. Both Rockingham Races Will End in Photo Finishes
Rockingham Speedway will be making its return to NASCAR with the classic track being added to the Truck and Xfinity Series Schedule’s. Aside from a brief revival with the Truck Series in 2012 and 2013, Rockingham, AKA “The Rock”, was last seen providing a photo finish in its swan song Cup race in 2004.
20. Joey Logano Defends His Championship by Going Winless and Missing the Playoffs
We are all well aware, at this point, of the phenomenon known as “Even Year Joey Logano”, so seeing as 2025 is an odd year, I am pretty confident that this is going to wind up not being Logano’s year.
21. Helio Castroneves Joins AJ Foyt and Mario Andretti as the Only Drivers to Win the Indianapolis 500 and the Daytona 500
An announcement multiple years in the making finally came to fruition when it was announced that 4-Time Indy 500 Champion, Helio Castroneves, will be making his NASCAR debut in the Daytona 500 as a part of the returning “Project 91” entry for Trackhouse. Despite having never captured an INDYCAR Championship, Castroneves is one of the most accomplished race car drivers of the 21st Century. As I mentioned a moment ago, he is a member of the elusive 4-Timers Club, a small group of drivers who have won the Indy 500 four separate times. He has also won on 21 other occasions in INDYCAR.
Castroneves is also very accomplished WITH fenders. He is a 10-Time IMSA Winner, including winning the Rolex 24 at Daytona three years in a row from 2021-2023. Not to mention, he also won at Five Flags Speedway in Pensacola, Florida in Tony Stewart’s Superstar Racing Experience.
22. Layne Riggs Will Win All Seven Short Track Races
This might be the boldest of all of my bold predictions, but in order to make it slightly more possible, I’m going to consider any track under 1 Mile to be a short track. There are seven races in which the track fits that bill on the Truck Series Schedule. Riggs was outstanding in the second half of last season, you could even argue he was a Top 3 or 4 driver in the series at that point. But his expertise has always been short tracks and he showed it last year. In the seven short track races in 2024, Riggs had 6 Top-10s, 4 Top-5s and a Win, which came at Bristol.
23. All Three Championships Will Be Won by a Driver in Their First Year With a Team
Both the Cup Series and the Truck Series feature only one real contender to make this happen, those being Chase Briscoe, who will be joining Joe Gibbs Racing, and in the Truck Series, Daniel Hemric, who enters his first year with McAnally-Hilgemann Racing. On the other hand, the Xfinity Series features a plethora of threats. Some notables include: Taylor Gray (Joe Gibbs Racing), Nick Sanchez (Big Machine Racing), Sam Mayer (Haas Factory Team), Sheldon Creed (Haas Factory Team). But Connor Zilisch is the driver who I think would be the most likely to make this happen.
24. JR Motorsports Goes One-for-One in Cup Series Competition
JR Motorsports is finally making their long awaited Cup Series debut in a partnership with Country Music Icon Chris Stapleton. Justin Allgaier will be piloting the #40 car in the Daytona 500. Allgaier is no slouch of a driver. He showed as much when he subbed for Kyle Larson in the Coke 600 last May and put forth a solid Top-15 effort. If JRM gives Allgaier a solid piece in Daytona, Allgaier is a good enough driver to execute when it matters and put that car in Victory Lane.
25. Corey Day Will Win at Least One Race in Each Series He Competes in
Corey Day has received an enormous amount of praise from the dirt community (including incredibly high praise from Kyle Larson), and that praise is well deserved. Day is a prodigy on dirt and began the transition to pavement last spring, winning a Late Model race at Hickory Motor Speedway. Day made a few Truck and ARCA starts last Fall and is expected to have a rigorous schedule which will likely include Xfinity, Truck and ARCA races. Assuming he develops as expected, I’d expect him to be regularly competing for wins in ARCA, though doing so in the Xfinity and Truck Series’ would probably be exceeding expectations. But, I guess that’s what makes it a bold prediction.
Image Credit: Patrick Valley
