The 109th running of the Indy 500 is this Sunday. After weeks of practice, 33 drivers will take the green flag, all hoping to score the biggest win of their careers. Trends have formed in the last 10 events.

Trends show that starting position matters most. 90% of winners have started in the top half of the field or above 16.5. Josef Newgarden is the lone winner under 16.5, starting 17th in 2023. If you choose to round up, 100% of winners have started in the top half. These numbers eliminate top drivers Josef Newgarden, Will Power, Colton Herta, Kyle Kirkwood, and Helio Castroneves from winning contention. 

70% of winners have started in the top 10, with 60% starting in the top 5. The lone non-top 5 starter is Helio Castroneves, who started 8th in 2021. Takuma Soto has a 100% win rate when starting in the top 4. He rolls off 2nd. 

The team you drive for also matters. 80% of winners have come from top teams, Penske, Andretti, and Ganassi. Rahal and Meyer Shank are the other two teams to win. This eliminates betting favorite Pato O’Ward, pole sitter Robert Shwartzman, David Malukas, and Christian Lundgaard.

With all the trends calculated, who does it leave? Takuma Sato, Scott Dixon, and Felix Rosenqvist have the best odds. Alex Palou, Marcus Ericsson, and Scott McLaughlin have slightly lower odds. With Sato, Dixon, and Rosenqvist starting in the top 5, we will focus on them.

It comes down to the teams. While Rahal and Meyer Shank have won in the past, do you trust their pit crews over Ganassi’s for 500 miles? I don’t, and that’s why the odds are in Scott Dixon’s favor to win the 109th Indy 500. 

Image Credit: Joe Skibinski/ Pesnke Entertainment