The 2026 Indy 500 is almost upon us. The starting grid is set. I’m going to prove the winner of the Indy 500 statistically. I’ve pulled data from 2000 to 2025. 

Please note that this doesn’t factor in a crash in practice the week of the Indy 500. This also doesn’t factor in anomalies such as Scott Dixon catching on fire last year. He was my statistical pick for 2025, but the brakes caught fire on the formation lap.

Let’s start with some glaring statistics. 

80.7% of winners have driven for Ganassi, Penske, or Andretti. The only two teams still in existence to win are Rahal and Meyer Shank. 

57% of winners come from Ganassi or Penske. Andretti doesn’t have a car in the crucial top 12; the highest car is 18th.

76.9% of winners start in the top 12. The lowest starting position to win was 19th in 2014. 

56.7% of winners start in the top 6. 

42% of winners start in the top 3.

So who does this leave? The answer this season is pretty simple. The odds heavily favor Alex Palou or David Malukas. The starting positions of 1 and 3 have the same win rate of 19.2%. 

So the statistical winner is a tie between Palou and Malukus. Both should be strong; one of the two should win.

Image Credit: Miller Lite Carb Day – By: Doug Mathews